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West Pacific/2015/10W/Archive/3
Public advisory TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 3 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 12:00 AM JST FRI JUL 3 2015 ...TROPICAL STORM LINFA SHOWING HINTS OF INTENSIFICATION... SUMMARY OF 12:00 AM JST...09:00 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION 15.7N 128.5E CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: LOW ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM E OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 KT...40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW AT 8 KT...10 MPH...16 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK --------------------------------------------- At 12:00 AM JST, the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was located at 15.7N 128.5E, about 560 miles (900 km) east of Manila, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds were 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1002 mb (29.59 inHg), and the cyclone was moving steadily northwestward at 8 knots (10 mph, 16 km/h). Environmental conditions are expected to favor modest strengthening over the next few days, but they may become less conducive by the end of the forecast period. NEXT ADVISORY ------------------- Next complete advisory at 12:00 am JST. $$ Forecaster YE Discussion TROPICAL STORM LINFA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 12:00 AM JST THU JUL 2 2015 Since the issuance of the last advisory package, Linfa has continued to organize, with the deep convection now over or very close to the low0level circulation. Cloud tops have cooled, with a sub- -80C CDG cloud tops now present, and it's possible Linfa may already be developing a CDO. The cirrus outflow aloft also appears to be expanding However, the center remains a bit displaced from the deep convection. Dvorak estimates are still rising, with SAB/JTWC agreeing on a T2.0/30 knts. However, other sources of data support a deeper cyclone. AI CIMSS AMSU pass estimated winds of 45 knts, and ADYT estimates supports a CI value of T2.5/35 knts. Therefore, the intesity remains 35 knts. The initial motion is steadily northwestward to north-northwestward this evening. Linfa is being steered on this course via the western edge of a mid-level ridge across the northern West Pacific. This steering pattern is expected to continue to be the dominant steering mechanism throughout the forecast period. However, complicating matters is the forecast progression of an upper-level trough across mainland China and across Japan by day 3. The GFS and ECMWF runs from earlier today do not agree on how much influence this trough will have on Linfa, with the former showing a weaker trough and subsequent slower/more west track and the latter showing a stronger trough and subsequent faster/more east track. The 0z GFs shifted west this run and brings it near Luzon in the South China Sea by day 5. The new forecast track is east of the previous one. Since then, the models have trended even further west, and it now appears that the 6z gFS and 0z ECMWF are in better agreement, since the GFS shifted west and ECMWF showing a slightly slower motion. The environment Linfa finds itself in is generally favorable for slow intensification, with sea surface temperatures near or at 30C, high ocean heat content values, and a generally moist mid-level atmosphere, though water vapor imagery ahows a little dry air to its north at this time. On the flip side, however, one potential limiting factor is a moderate 10 to 20 knots of easterly wind shear, which is not expected to relent over the next few days. Aside from the HWRF, global models only show slow intensification, and the intensity forecast this cycle will follow suit. By the end of the forecast period, interaction with the northern Philippines as well as increasing shear may cause Linfa to begin weakening, as reflected by now both the GFS and ECMWf.however, he intensity forecast in the long-range still favors the ECMWF. The new intensity forecast in all is a little higher than the previous one, and is in good agreement with the guidance, and splits the little difference between the GFS/ECMWF. INIT 02/1500Z 15.7N 128.5E 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 16.1N 128.2E 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 16.6N 127.9E 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.1N 126.8E 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 17.4N 125.3E 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 17.8N 124.1E 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 18.7N 123.0E 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR OR OVER LUZON.... 120H 07/1200Z 19.8N 121.3E 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster YE